Why Experts Are Worried About A Global Food Crisis

Hi readers, happy Thursday! Today we’re covering the coming El Niño and its global food impacts, Trump’s replacement for Tulsi Gabbard, the U.S.’s renewed efforts for Greenland, another Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire, California’s primary elections, U.S. oil reserves running low, and SpaceX’s IPO valuation.

“Ah, but a man's reach should exceed his grasp,

Or what's a heaven for?”

― Robert Browning

A Dire Warning For Global Diets

On Tuesday, the U.N.’s weather agency officially forecast that the planet is likely to experience a moderate or strong El Niño weather event this year, which will raise temperatures across the globe for a few months and increase the likelihood of extreme weather events in some places. “We need to prepare for a potentially strong El Nino ​event - which will exacerbate drought and heavy rainfall and increase the risk of heatwaves both on land and in the ocean,” said the agency’s secretary-general.

Meanwhile, Wednesday marked another weird day in the U.S.-Israel-Iran war. Iran kicked off the day by launching a drone attack on Kuwait International Airport, killing one person and injuring at least 60 others. The attack was in retaliation to U.S. strikes on an Iranian oil tanker and Qeshm Island, an Iranian military stronghold in the Strait of Hormuz. Later in the day, the U.S. House of Representatives issued a surprising blow to Trump’s war, passing a measure calling for the president to stop all military operations in Iran. The bill still requires Senate approval to take effect, though, and wouldn’t fully end the war even if that happens.

Why are these two stories mashed together? El Niño’s effects on crops combined with the conflict in the Middle East could pose a serious problem for food access across the planet. Experts predict that certain food commodities including rice, palm oil, sugarcane, and coffee could face more than 50% price increases due to the weather event. Combined with the Iran conflict generally pushing up prices (especially the costs of oil, transport, food, and fertilizer), we could quickly see massive food access issues across the planet, especially in poorer countries with less ability to absorb those higher prices. The U.N.’s World Food Programme estimates that 363 million people are at risk of acute hunger right now, with 45 million of those cases being a direct result of the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict.

The Trouble With Trump’s Top Spy Pick

Tulsi Gabbard is set to leave her role as the U.S. Director of National Intelligence on June 30, and Trump has already chosen her successor. If Trump gets his way, the country’s new spy chief will be Bill Pulte, the current head of the Federal Housing Finance Agency. Pulte is a well-known Republican donor and heir to the third-largest home construction company in the country, and has zero intelligence experience. 

Democrats (and some Republicans) are understandably unhappy with that idea, and are threatening to block the renewal of Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) if Pulte’s appointment goes through. Section 702 allows U.S. intelligence agencies to conduct warrantless surveillance of non-U.S. citizens living outside the country, and as part of that surveillance also allows the government to warrantlessly collect U.S. citizens’ conversations with people living outside of the country. Defense officials claim that this sweeping access is necessary to stop terror attacks, but privacy advocates argue that it allows the government illegal access to information it should need a warrant for, citing the state using it to access the private messages of Black Lives Matter protestors, U.S. government officials, journalists, and political commentators.

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries called Trump’s nomination of Pulte “another indication of how unserious, reckless and dangerous Donald Trump and his administration are with respect to the national security of the American people,” calling Pulte “deeply unserious, deeply dangerous and deeply unqualified.” Section 702 is set to expire by next Friday, and a bill renewing it will require Democrats’ support to reach the 60-vote threshold it needs to pass the Senate.

Getting Greedy For Greenland

• It appears that Trump’s appetite for Greenland hasn’t been dulled. Yesterday, during a House of Representatives Foreign Affairs Committee hearing, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced that the U.S. is in talks to use Greenland – a territory of Denmark – for “collective defense” initiatives.

•  “We are actually involved in ‌conversations ⁠with Greenland and Denmark on the use of Greenland for collective defense for all of us. It's a key part of missile defense, but we're involved ​in those talks ​right now. ⁠I think we're in a good place on it now,” he said. When asked about the fact that the island is part of Denmark, Rubio responded ominously, “For now.” 

• The Secretary of State has indicated that he agrees with Trump’s assessment that simply basing U.S. forces in Greenland won’t be enough, and it would be better for the U.S. to own the island. While the White House’s push to acquire Greenland has been understandably met with anger from E.U. nations, discussions are apparently still being held via official diplomatic channels.

An Action Plan For Peace

• Israel and Hezbollah both agreed to a partial ceasefire on Monday after Israel launched airstrikes on the southern suburbs of Beirut, Lebanon’s capital city. Yesterday, the two parties tested that ceasefire – after Hezbollah fired rockets at Israeli troops in northern Israel, the IDF responded by launching airstrikes on southern Lebanon. According to Lebanon’s health ministry, the Israeli attacks killed at least nine people, including two paramedics in an ambulance.

• The partial ceasefire states that the IDF won’t bomb Beirut as long as Hezbollah – an Islamist “state within a state” that has significant political and military power in Lebanon doesn’t attack Israel. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio hosted Israeli and Lebanese diplomats in Washington yesterday in order to work out a wider, more lasting peace deal – he told reporters that the group is working on “an action plan on a track for security in [Lebanon], independent from Hezbollah.” The problem is that Israel’s campaign against Lebanon has killed at least 3,516 people and displaced over 1 million others since the start of Lebanon’s involvement in the conflict, likely driving more people to support Hezbollah.

Additional World News

• Navy Helicopter Crash Kills Three in Britain (NYT, $)

• Congo re-opens airport at centre of Ebola outbreak (Reuters)

• UK wants public to vote on wildlife to replace Churchill on bank notes (Politico)

• Five countries elected to UN Security Council; Germany misses out (Reuters)

• Rebel attacks in eastern DRC kill 30 people and hamper Ebola response (Guardian)

• How Voodoo overcame suppression and became a democratic force in the West African nation of Benin (AP)

Orbital Edge Accelerator Applications Extended to June 4

The Orbital Edge Accelerator program is now accepting applications through June 4, 11:59 PM ET.

Entering its second year, Orbital Edge is a unique accelerator designed to help startups developing market-changing, space-enabled technologies access capital, mentorship, strategic partnerships, and potential orbital flight opportunities through the ISS National Laboratory® ecosystem.

The program is supported by the ISS National Laboratory®, alongside investment and ecosystem partners including Context Ventures, Cook Inlet Region, Inc., Draper Associates, Draper University, E2MC, and Stellar Ventures.

If you are building technologies at the intersection of space, innovation, and commercialization, this is an opportunity worth exploring.

A Political Bloodbath On The Pacific

• California held its primary elections on Tuesday, with a U.S. Senate seat, the governorship, and the Los Angeles mayorship up for grabs. In the governor’s race, the top two candidates will head to the November general election. Currently, there are no clear winners as the state (especially its Democratic voting population) tends to vote through mail-in ballots, but Trump-backed Republican Steve Hilton is in first place with 28% of ballots counted. You might be surprised that a Republican is leading a California race, but the Democratic Party failed to coalesce behind a single candidate this year, splitting the vote between establishment Dem Xavier Becerra and progressive billionaire Tom Steyer. Both trail Hilton, with 26% and 20% of the vote, respectively. But again, things could change soon as just 56% ballots have been counted.

• In the race to claim Nancy Pelosi’s Senate seat, things are a bit more clear. State Senator Scott Wiener and San Francisco Supervisor Connie Chan are now headed to the general election, receiving 41% and 29% of the vote, respectively. Left-wing political operative Saikat Chakrabarti (a founding engineer at Stripe, Inc who self-funded his campaign) dropped out last night after winning just 15% of the vote. Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass is set to participate in a runoff election in November with Republican reality television star Spencer Pratt, as neither secured a majority of the vote in this week’s primary.

The Reserves Are Running Low

• U.S. oil stockpiles have been drained to their lowest level in two decades as a result of Trump’s war with Iran. On Wednesday, the U.S. government published data showing that U.S. stocks of crude oil and petroleum products dipped 10.6 million barrels last week, bringing the nation’s oil reserves to just 1.57 billion barrels. The last time reserves fell that low was during the energy crisis of 2004.

• According to one industry expert, oil prices could rise to $200 per barrel this summer unless the Strait of Hormuz is opened to oil tanker traffic in the near future. “You start to raise the risk of spillover into other sectors, the economy and financial system … it detonates fragilities in the broader economy and financial system,” he said. 

• The U.S. has been tapping into its oil reserves in order to compensate for the loss of the oil that would normally be shipped through the Strait of Hormuz, which makes up roughly 1/5 of all daily global oil exports. “The US is acting like the lender of last resort for global oil markets, acting as a stabiliser and providing a buffer to offset Middle Eastern supply loss,” said another oil analyst. While Washington has been able to keep oil prices from spiking so far, things are set to get worse as the conflict drags on and oil reserves get low. “As that buffer decreases, it becomes a stressor rather than a reassurance,” he added.

Additional USA News

• He Blew the Whistle on DOGE. Then His Brakes Were Cut (Wired, $) 

• Trump expected to nominate Todd Blanche to be attorney general (Politico)

• ICE Detainees on Hunger Strike Say They Were Pepper Sprayed (Newsweek)

• Trump to impose tariffs on dozens of nations, citing claims of forced labor (WaPo, $)

• Philly Cops Admit That They’re Tracking “First Amendment Activity” Critical of AI (Intercept) 

• Fired 60 Minutes correspondent Scott Pelley says CBS told him to inject ‘falsehoods’ into reporting (Guardian)

SpaceX Is On The Launchpad

• The IPO news won’t stop rolling in. Yesterday, SpaceX set a price for its initial public offering, which is set to hit the Nasdaq next week under the ticker SPCX. The company is offering $74.4 billion of its shares at $135 apiece – those numbers would value the rocket/AI/social media company at $1.77 trillion, making it the largest IPO in history. Elon Musk controls roughly 50% of all shares in the company (which account for 85% of all its voting shares). The price of $135 per share means his stake in the firm is worth roughly $752 billion. 

• A day before SpaceX announced its IPO price, investment research firm Morningstar offered its own view of the company’s value. Morningstar analysts valued SpaceX at just $780 billion, a full trillion-with-a-T below its target IPO price. They cited the company’s lackluster AI business (which is well behind OpenAI and Anthropic) as one reason for the significantly lower valuation, adding that its plans for orbital data centers and satellite networks will likely face technological issues outside of the company’s control. “We think the company has been significantly overvalued and investors will have opportunities to buy ​the stock ​at more attractive levels after the ​IPO,” said one analyst.

Additional Reads

• AI Doesn't Have ROI (Ed Zitron)

• Inside the luxurious tedium of “I have no friends” TikTok. (Cut)

• To experience Zen-like awakening, try going the headless way (Psyche)

• Microsoft claims new quantum chip 1,000 times better than before (BBC)

• Gemini Spark is the most impressive and terrifying AI experience I’ve had yet (Verge) 

• Oil execs building corporate militias, fearing "Bastille" moment over gas prices (Ken Klippenstein) 

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Peanut For Your Thoughts

Here’s a Financial Times piece about Bill Pulte’s sordid past, including a link to him receiving a trophy with “Bill Pulte F***s Only the Young” written on it. He actually organized the event where he received the trophy – the whole thing was related to the Bed Bath & Beyond meme stock craze, and also involved someone getting slapped across the face with a giant green dildo.

Editor + Writer: Marcus Gee-Lim

Designer: Joe Stella