Everything You Need To Know About The U.S.-Iran Peace Deal

Hi readers, happy Thursday! Today we’re covering the U.S.-Iran peace deal, Netanyahu’s next steps, Ukraine’s Crimea offensive, Trump’s inexperienced director of national intelligence, Luigi Mangione’s defense plan, and some good news for coral reefs.

“The heaviest penalty for declining to rule is to be ruled by someone inferior to yourself.” ― Plato

Now That’s A Big Deal

On Wednesday, the presidents of the U.S. and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding aimed at ending the war between their two countries. Trump signed a copy of the document at the Versailles in France, while Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian signed his copy in Iran.

As the deal was signed, an anonymous White House official leaked its actual text to the New York Times (you can read it here). The first paragraph kicks off by stating that all parties in the war “declare the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts.” In that two-sentence paragraph, the document references the end of all military operations in Lebanon a whopping three times – that’s a clear sign to Israel to not restart its offensive against Hezbollah, a militant group that controls part of Lebanon. 

Both sides have committed to: working towards a long-term peace deal within 60 days; ending both countries’ blockades of the Strait of Hormuz; the establishment of a $300 billion reconstruction fund for Iran (over half of which has already been committed); and the end of all U.S. sanctions on Iran if a final peace deal is reached. In terms of Iran’s nuclear program, Tehran has promised that it “shall not procure or develop nuclear weapons,” and has also agreed to “maintain the current status quo of its nuclear program,” meaning it won’t move to repair its damaged nuclear facilities. Later paragraphs loosen U.S. sanctions on Iran’s current oil exports, allow Tehran to access its $24 billion in frozen funds held overseas, and state that the final deal will be sealed via a binding U.N. Security Council resolution.

Of course, there are doubts that the memorandum will hold, given Israel’s dogged determination to destroy Hezbollah in Lebanon (and Iran’s commitment to protecting the group). Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Iran’s parliamentary speaker and a top negotiator, stated that his country’s “finger is on the trigger” if the U.S. or Israel break the peace. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and CIA Director John Ratcliffe voiced their own concerns, telling Trump and other top officials that they doubt Iran will make the nuclear concessions that the White House is seeking. Trump, though, seems happy with the memo. “I didn't want to see economic catastrophe,” he told reporters in France. “If you kept this going, that could have happened.” 

Bibi’s Next Battle

• The U.S.-Israel-Iran war seems to be winding down (at least for now), which is not good news for Benjamin Netanyahu. This week, the Israeli Prime Minister confirmed that he plans to run in Israel’s upcoming elections – which must be called before October – but the lack of concrete wins for Israel despite its involvement in multiple conflicts across the Middle East might spell trouble for the country’s longest-serving prime minister.

• If the U.S.-Iran truce holds, none of Israel’s enemies in the Middle East will have been defeated. Hamas still maintains a presence in Gaza, Hezbollah is still operating out of Lebanon, the Iranian regime is still standing, and, meanwhile, U.S. support for Israel is flagging. For Netanyahu specifically, Israeli voters will remember his attempts to dismantle the country’s judicial system, his ongoing corruption case, and his failure to reach the goals of his military campaigns.

• “Netanyahu lost the war. Netanyahu did not deliver - at the moment of truth he collapsed,” said opposition ​leader Yair Lapid after the U.S.-Iran peace deal was announced. Over the past few months, Lapid’s Together party has been gaining ground in the polls, and the rise of other opposition parties could lead to the creation of an anti-Netanyahu coalition government following the upcoming elections.

Kyiv Comes For Crimea

• In early 2014, Russia invaded Crimea, eventually annexing the territory from Ukraine. In its most recent invasion of Ukraine, Moscow has used the Crimean Peninsula as a crucial hub for its operations in southern Ukraine. While Crimea is located in a convenient place for Russia’s offensive, it’s also vulnerable to attack – it’s connected to the Russian mainland by a single bridge, and just two bridges link it to Russian-held territory in Ukraine.

• Over the past few weeks, Ukraine has been escalating its offensive against the Russian presence in the area, using drones to strike Crimea’s supply routes with the hopes of cutting the peninsula off from Russia. Those strikes have hit dozens of trucks and trains bringing fuel and other goods into Crimea, and have also damaged both bridges connecting the peninsula to Russia-controlled Ukraine. People in the area are struggling to find gasoline to keep their cars running, and the peninsula’s summer holiday season has been dampened, with one Russian travel site noting that 80% of its early summer bookings in Crimea have been canceled. Does this mean Ukraine is anywhere close to reclaiming Crimea? No, but it does show that Russia’s grip on the region is weaker than you might expect.

Additional World News

• EU eyes unified China approach (Semafor)

• How Macron won Trump round at the G7. Until the next bust-up. (Politico)

• Lululemon apologises after Japanese drum row at Great Wall yoga event (Guardian)

• Congo Ebola response strained a month after WHO declares international emergency (Reuters)

• Japan ramping up defence is 'critical' to prevent war, Defence Minister Koizumi tells BBC (BBC) 

• Real estate event in London ‘advertised sale of land in illegal Israeli settlements’ (Guardian)

Pulte Takes His Not-So-Rightful Place

• Trump is continuing his push to instate Bill Pulte – a businessman whose biggest accomplishment is inheriting his family’s homebuilding firm – as the U.S.’s interim director of national intelligence. Yesterday, the president actively delayed the confirmation process of Jay Clayton, his long-term pick for the nation’s top spy role, ensuring that Pulte will serve as the director of national intelligence for at least a few weeks. It’s unclear why, exactly, he wants Pulte in that job, but his choice has been met with resistance from both Democrats and Republicans.

• Clayton’s confirmation hearing was set to take place on Wednesday, but Trump cancelled it in the morning, declaring “we are cancelling the Senate Hearing RE: DNI Today” via TruthSocial. While lawmakers attempted to go through with the scheduled hearing, Clayton announced that he was suddenly unavailable soon after, blocking the whole process. Trump had tapped Clayton (who also has minimal intelligence experience) in a last-minute attempt to get Democrats to approve the renewal of a sweeping surveillance bill, but that effort came too late – the measure has since lapsed, meaning intelligence agencies are in danger of losing some of their biggest intel streams. And Bill Pulte will be their boss for a few weeks.

Luigi Mangione’s Crazy Defense Tactic

• Luigi Mangione appeared in court yesterday for his New York state murder trial. During his appearance, Judge Gregory Carro announced that Mangione’s defense team plans to mount a “psychiatric defense” of their client based on his “extreme emotional disturbance” at the time that he allegedly shot and killed UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson. 

• Mangione is facing nine felony charges in New York, including second-degree murder and multiple counts related to criminal possession of a firearm. If the jury accepts Mangione’s psychiatric defense, that second-degree murder charge will be downgraded to a manslaughter charge. The former could result in a life sentence for Mangione, while the latter carries a maximum sentence of 25 years behind bars.

• As for his federal case (which Mangione is set to stand trial for in October), the defendant faces two charges of stalking. Federal prosecutors had sought additional charges (a murder charge and a weapons charge) which would have made Mangione face the death penalty, but those were dismissed in January.

Additional USA News

• US Fed expected to hold rates steady (Semafor)

• Georgia Republicans Shelve Redistricting Amid Mounting Protests (NYT, $)There have been 4 major plane crashes in the US in 4 days. What is going on? (CNN)

• California’s tectonic systems at highest levels of stress in 1,000 years – study (Guardian) 

• 'Rejected': How federal prisons stonewall grievances and deny care for years (NPR)

• Republicans and Democrats unite: Trump’s Iran nuclear deal needs a vote in Congress (Semafor)

A Coral-lying Cry

• As global warming continues to heat up the planet, coral reefs face ever-lower odds of survival. This is for two main reasons. First, even small water temperature increases can stress out corals, and prolonged periods of stress can kill them off entirely. Second, the increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide that causes global warming leads to higher levels of dissolved CO2 in our oceans – this makes the water more acidic, impairing corals’ ability to grow and maintain their skeletons. As coral reefs provide shelter for roughly a quarter of all marine species at some point in their life cycles, the loss of coral could have serious consequences for the ecosystems of entire oceans.

• Despite all that doom and gloom, a new study by the Wildlife Conservation Society has brought some not-so-bad news to the coral reefs. Researchers identified 42 factors that contribute to refugia – specific areas where corals flourish. Using AI, they combed through over 38,000 human observations of coral habitats worldwide, identifying more than 5,800 square miles of refugia spread across 72 countries. The study’s findings show that there are three times as many refugia than scientists estimated in a 2018 paper – the information should help guide governments’ coral conservation efforts (if they have any).

Additional Reads

• Can anyone look cool wearing Snap’s $2,000 glasses? (Verge)

• How needing others became a source of shame for Americans (Psyche)

• Meta's CTO says morale is almost 'the worst it's ever been' (BusinessInsider) 

• Elon Musk’s Next Move May Be a Mega-Merger of SpaceX and Tesla (NYT, $)

• More people are buying pet snakes than ever. It’s hurting millions of other animals. (Vox)

• Soccer's premier goal scorers, led by Lionel Messi, show up to the World Cup with a bang (NPR)

Please consider supporting Daily Pnut, an independently operated and bootstrapped publication, and you'll receive our exclusive Sunday edition. Many thanks to everyone who already supports us!

Peanut For Your Thoughts

That Messi hat trick… what a joy to watch.

Editor + Writer: Marcus Gee-Lim

Designer: Joe Stella