What Happens If You Take a Gap Year | “Jaw-Dropping” Birth Fertility Rate Change | Censoring the CDC
July 16, 2020
Daily Pnut is interested in readers’ opinions on schools reopening in the fall. Whether you’re a student, a parent of a student, a teacher, or just have an opinion on the matter, please fill out our quick 2-minute survey on the return to school this fall.
If you’d like to read more on the subject, also check this Daily Pnut original essay on the return to campus, written from the perspective of a current college student: COVID on Campus: College’s Risky Return.
These are pretty dark times. We are going to try to lighten the mood up with some more interesting-upbeat-positive articles to start editions.
- Taylor Lorenz Explains the Cake Meme (NYT, $)
- Scientists Accidentally Bred the Fish Version of a Liger (NYT, $)
- Indians keep their distance in mass tree planting campaign (AP News). 2 million people planted 250 million trees while also practicing social distancing.
“An investment in knowledge pays the best interest” – Benjamin Franklin
“Education is not preparation for life; education is life itself.” – John Dewey
Peaking Too Early
(Nhac Nguyen via Getty Images)
The United Nations has been making global population projections for decades. In its 2019 study, UN demographers projected that, due to declining fertility rates, the planet’s population would peak at 10.9 billion by 2100, up from roughly 7.7 billion today. Additionally, the study noted that some countries would face increasing population declines, along with an increased aging of their workforces.
A new study from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington, paints an updated, less optimistic, picture. The IHME research study published Tuesday in The Lancet predicts that global population could peak in 2064, 36 years sooner than UN demographers forecast a year ago.
Furthermore, fertility rates are declining faster, the number of elders is rising more rapidly, and more countries could face a loss in population than the UN’s 2019 study projected. The IHME study concluded the populations of at least 23 countries, including Japan, Thailand, Italy, and Spain, could shrink by more than 50 percent, and significant declines in the working-age populations of China and India portend a weakening in their global economic power.
Realistically, falling fertility rates mean nearly every country could have shrinking populations by the end of the century, something researchers say will have a “jaw-dropping” impact on societies. In 1950, women were having an average of 4.7 children in their lifetime. By 2017 the global fertility rate had fallen nearly 50 percent, to an average of 2.4 children. The latest IHME study predicts birth rates will fall below 1.7 by 2100. This may be because women now have more educational and work opportunities, and are afforded greater access to contraception, allowing them the choice to have fewer children.
Torrential Terror
(Munir Uz Zaman via Getty Images)
- Flooding from monsoon rains in Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Myanmar and Nepal has killed dozens, destroyed homes and structures, drowned entire villages, and forced people to crouch on rooftops hoping to be rescued. More than four million people have been affected, losing children, homes, and most of their worldly possessions.
- The monsoon season, usually June to September, is vital to South Asia’s agrarian economy. Increasingly, the season has brought cyclones and devastating floods, causing the internal displacement of millions of people in low-lying areas, particularly in Bangladesh. Scientists say global warming is increasing the frequency of extreme rains across the subcontinent.
- In India, authorities have chalked up at least 85 deaths to the monsoons with many more people labelled missing. The monsoons have also hurt conservation efforts in India, crashing through a national park home to the vulnerable one-horned Indian rhinoceros, killing at least 50 of the animals.
- Last year’s torrential rains killed at least 600 people, and more than 25 million were affected by massive flooding. Researchers warn that, within a few decades, the warming climate could cause Bangladesh, with a population of over 160 million, to lose more than 10 percent of its land to sea-level rise, displacing some 18 million people. (NYT)
The Apple of My Ireland
- Ireland has been Apple’s European base since the early 1990s. To entice the company to come ashore, the Irish government offered the American tech giant lucrative tax breaks. After an in-depth state aid investigation begun in 2014, the European Commission concluded in 2016 that two tax rulings issued by Ireland to Apple had substantially and artificially lowered the company’s tax burden since 1991.
- The Commission found the deals with the Irish government illegal, and ordered Apple to pay billions of dollars in back taxes from the years 2003 to 2014. On Wednesday, the EU’s second-highest court reversed the earlier ruling, absolving Apple from having to pay the $14.8 billion in back taxes to Ireland that Europe’s regulators claim the company owes.
- The General Court said regulators hadn’t met the burden of proof necessary to show that Apple was receiving a “selective advantage” in tax breaks over other European companies. Apple released a statement celebrating the decision, pointing out that, since its products are made in America, its largest tax burden is in the US, and noting the company had paid more than $100 billion in corporate income taxes around the world in the last decade.
- “This case was not about how much tax we pay, but where we are required to pay it,” a spokesperson said. The ruling may still be appealed to Europe’s highest court. (NPR)
Additional World News
- U.S. Weighs Sweeping Travel Ban on Chinese Communist Party Members (NYT, $)
- China vows retaliation after Trump ends preferential status for Hong Kong (Reuters)
- In Iran, Rare Protests (Online) Against Capital Punishment (NYT, $)
- Coronavirus: Big choices for EU leaders on recovery billions (BBC)
- Migrant workers in Qatar face ‘structural racism’ says UN report (Guardian)
- Seven ships ablaze in latest Iran mystery fires (BBC)
- That Siberian Heat Wave? Yes, Climate Change Was a Big Factor (NYT, $)
- Russia launches pollution investigation after streams run orange (Guardian)
- Myanmar Plan to Breed Protected Species in Captivity Draws Criticism (NYT, $)
- The Tahini War: The Food at the Center of an Arab Gay Rights Battle (NYT, $)
COVID-19
- First Coronavirus Vaccine Tested in Humans Shows Early Promise (NYT, $)
- Child vaccinations fall sharply amid pandemic, UN says (BBC)
- The data that proves the first wave of coronavirus is far from over (Wired, $)
- Colombian cartels killing those who don’t obey their Covid-19 lockdowns (Guardian)
- Alarm as Covid-19 reaches recently contacted Amazon tribe (Guardian)
- Masks offer much more protection against coronavirus than many think (LA Times, $)
- Israeli Data Show School Openings Were a Disaster That Wiped Out Lockdown Gains (The Daily Beast)
- A Shutdown May Be Needed to Stop the Coronavirus (NYT)
- America shuts down again — choosing reality over Trump’s false claims (CNN)
- The Stunning Sweep of the Coronavirus Through the Rio Grande Valley (NYT)
- How spending more time at home might affect your health (The Verge)
Behind the Learning Curve
- COVID-19 is creating a huge dilemma for freshmen who are part of this year’s incoming college class of 2024: students can either take classes from home on Zoom and other video-conferencing apps, or delay matriculating for a year in the hopes they will be allowed on campus in the fall of 2021.
- While there are pros and cons for both choices, a new analysis from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York says those young people who choose Door #2 risk losing about $90,000 in lifetime earnings. About half of those long term earnings losses comes from forgoing the $43,000 salary that new graduates typically earn in their first year of work after graduation. Because wage increases are steeper at the beginning of young professionals’ careers, the graduate who earns their degree at age 22 can, by the time they’re 25, expect to earn an average of $52,000.
- “You miss [the $43,000] in your first year, and then you are behind for the whole rest of your career,” NY Fed economists said. A graduate who starts working a year late at 23 would have only two years of professional experience by age 25, and would only be earning $49,000 — $3,000 less than if they had graduated on time.
- Staying even that little bit behind the curve throughout a person’s working years adds up to a whole lot by retirement age. Bottom line: the hidden cost of delaying work a year can actually erode the value of a college degree. (CBS News)
- Coronavirus concerns mean US parents and school leaders face dilemmas (LA Times, $)
- More than 3 in 4 college students plan to return to campus this fall — but they promise not to party (MarketWatch)
- College students say they’ll sacrifice parties if they can return to campus (Axios)
- COVID on Campus: College’s Risky Return (Daily Pnut)
CD-Can’t See the Data
- From the beginning of the pandemic, the US agency responsible for collecting coronavirus and hospital-related data has been the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). The Trump administration has now mandated that hospitals sidestep the CDC and send critical information about COVID-19 hospitalizations and equipment to a different federal database.
- The change immediately sparked concerns among infectious disease and health care experts that the administration was curtailing the ability of the nation’s public health agency to gather and analyze crucial data in the midst of a pandemic. They were also dismayed because the reporting change could disrupt public access to the data.
- Furthermore, it comes at a time when the Trump White House has openly criticized CDC Director Robert Redfield and infectious disease expert Dr. Anthony Fauci. A Health and Human Services spokesperson defended the administration’s decision, saying that the CDC’s system was too slow and that “they just cannot keep up with this pandemic.”
- Hospitals must now report to a new site set up by HHS using a private contractor. TeleTracking, a company based in Pennsylvania, was awarded the $10 million contract in a non-competitive bid in April. (NPR)
- ‘I think you can trust me’: Fauci stands firm as Trump works to undermine him (Guardian)
Additional USA News
- Trump replaces campaign manager Brad Parscale in major shake-up (Guardian)
- Police Bodycam Video Provides Fuller Picture Of George Floyd’s Fatal Arrest (NPR)
- U.S. Supreme Court Justice Ginsburg discharged from hospital (Reuters)
- Defense Secretary Esper Announces Actions To Address Discrimination In U.S. Military (NPR)
- Asheville, N.C., Approves Steps Toward Reparations For Black Residents (NPR)
- A group of hackers began spreading a Bitcoin scam on popular Twitter accounts through a vulnerability in Twitter’s own systems: Barack Obama, Joe Biden, Elon Musk, Apple, and others hacked in unprecedented Twitter attack (The Verge)
- From 4chan to Congress? A guide to the QAnon conspiracy theory (LA Times, $)
- Pandemic Facebook Has Become a Parody of Itself (Atlantic)
- The Specter of Caste in Silicon Valley (NYT, $)
Garments in the Garbage
- Most people have clothes in the back of their closets or the bottom of their drawers that no longer fit, have gone out of style, or haven’t ever been worn. One sociologist said on average 12 percent of the clothes in the wardrobes of women she studied could be considered “inactive.” (A number that, from personal experience, seems quite low.)
- Occasionally, those among us who are conscientious will go through these “inactive” garments and donate them to a worthwhile cause. However, the average American is estimated to simply throw away some 82 pounds of clothes every year. In fact, around 85 percent of all textiles thrown away in the US — roughly 13 million tons — are either dumped into a landfill or burned.
- Globally, an estimated 92 million tons of textiles waste is created each year; by 2030 we’re all expected to be disposing of over 134 million tons of textiles a year. Of all the clothes and shoes thrown away in the US, only 13.6 percent is being recycled; world-wide that number is even smaller.
- This is partly because the fashion industry uses high volumes of non-renewable resources, including petroleum, to produce clothes that are often used for just a short time. There are good reasons to find alternatives to simply throwing clothes and other textiles out. The fashion industry produces 10 percent of all greenhouse gas emissions; textile production alone is estimated to release 1.2 billion tons of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere annually. The fashion industry is also responsible for 20 percent of global water waste — something to think about next time you’re tempted to make a random spur-of-the-moment clothing purchase. (BBC)
Additional Reads
- ‘DDoS-For-Hire’ Is Fueling a New Wave of Attacks (Wired, $)
- The reason employers love online job portals (BBC). The modern job search is ridiculously draining. With more jobs visible thanks to the internet, employers can be even more stringent when hiring, forcing people through endless hoops. If one applicant drops out, three more are waiting to take their place.
- Sometimes, making something perfect isn’t always the best: The problem with perfectionists (BBC)
- The Greatest Privilege We Never Talk About: Beauty (Medium)
- How Pandemics Wreak Havoc—and Open Minds (New Yorker, $)
- Seas quieted by pandemic could reduce stress, improve health in whales (National Geographic)
- Will the Hydrogen Revolution Start in a Garbage Dump? (Wired, $)
- Why Innovators Like Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos Embrace This Ancient Problem-Solving Technique (Inc.)
- Hundreds of hyperpartisan sites are masquerading as local news. This map shows if there’s one near you. (NiemanLab). This reminds us of this freaky video showing various TV anchors working for stations owned by Sinclair Broadcast Group repeating a script passed down from the right-leaning media giant.
- Cancel Culture and the Problem of Woke Capitalism (Atlantic, $)
- A different kind of surveillance: Anything You Say in This Trader Joe’s Line May Be Used Against You (NYT, $)