Macron to the Rescue on the Mediterranean?
| IN A NUTSHELL: MUST READ |
The US Senate Passes Sanctions Bill: The US Senate voted 98-2 Thursday to pass the final version of the tough new bipartisan sanctions bill and sent it to President Trump’s desk. As the Pnut has reported, the bill imposes new penalties against Iran and North Korea as well as more sanctions against Russia. Most importantly, it gives Congress the authority to block the president from easing, or lifting, sanctions against Russia. Trump has not yet indicated whether he will sign the bill, but Senators were quick to point out that with the House voting 419-3 to pass the bill earlier in the week, vetoing it would be a serious misstep. The Russia sanctions vote marks the Republican-controlled Congress’s biggest legislative victory to date. …But It Does Not Pass An Obamacare Repeal: In the wee hours of Friday morning, the Senate did the reverse and failed to pass the ‘Skinny” Obamacare repeal bill in a 51-49 cliffhanger. It was literally down to the wire when John McCain (R-Arizona) walked back onto the Senate floor and gestured a thumbs down, joining with Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) and Susan Collins (R-Maine) and all 48 Democrats to oppose the measure. It was a devastating setback to the GOP after seven years of efforts to repeal the Affordable Care Act, and President Trump’s promise that on day one of his presidency, he would ‘repeal and replace’ Barack Obama’s signature healthcare law. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Kentucky) looked stunned while giving a short speech after the legislation failed. He lamented the vote, and the inability of the GOP to fulfill their long-term campaign pledge. According to the Cook Political Report and Kantar Media/CMAG, a firm that tracks ad spending, since 2010, Republican candidates and affiliated groups have spent a combined $666 million on 1.3 million ads attacking “Obamacare.” |
| NUTS AND BOLTS: SHOULD READ |
Macron To Address Crisis of Migrants Departing From Libya: He’s a normal politician by night, but by day, he’s beginning to look like a superhero. We’re starting to picture French President Emmanuel Macron donning a cape and flying off to bring hope to a crisis. Just days ago he hosted peace talks in Paris between rival Libyan commanders in an effort to bring some stability to the North African country; the talks resulted in a cease fire and agreement for new elections. Now Macron has announced plans to set up pre-processing points in Libya, called “hot spots,” to handle refugee claims before people attempt to reach Europe by making the all-too treacherous journey across the Mediterranean Sea. The UN refugee agency estimated that 660,000 “people of concern”–refugees and internally displaced people–were living in Libya at the end of 2016. Libya is a key point of departure for hundreds of thousands of migrants, and human traffickers have been taking full advantage on the power vacuum created by the 2011 overthrow and killing of Muammar el-Qaddafi. Macron said by pre-determining eligibility at the “hot spots,” people who are ineligible for asylum would be deterred from attempting the precarious and often fatal sea crossing. …While Italian Prime Minister Paolo Gentiloni Makes His Own Deal: Since 2015, Libya has denied the European Union’s anti-smuggling mission, called Sophia, from entering its waters. But on Wednesday, Italy struck a long sought-after deal with Libyan officials to give the Italian military more freedom along the North African coast. After meeting with Fayez Serraj, who leads Libya’s United Nations-backed government, Gentiloni announced that Libya had requested Italy’s help to stop the traffickers who have for years been operating with impunity in its territorial waters. As the Pnut reported two weeks ago, Italy has become increasingly frustrated with a migrant crisis it has been managing without much help from its neighbors. So far this year, nearly 100,000 migrants from Africa, South Asia, and the Middle East have arrived in Italy, a 7 percent increase compared to the same period last year. At least 2,300 migrants have died this year after attempting the Mediterranean crossing. If Italy’s parliament approves the deal with Libya next week, which it is expected to do, its defense ministry says that it can quickly deploy ships, helicopters, fighter jets, and drones by mid-August. But the Italian government will have to carefully navigate the rules of engagement, including what Italian warships would do if/when they encounter human traffickers, whether they can detain arms and oil smugglers as well as human traffickers, and whether rescued migrants should be returned to Libya, where they are likely to face “a horrific security situation.” |
| KEEPING OUR EYE ON |
Is Venezuela Headed For Civil War?: On Thursday, the US government ordered family members of employees at its embassy in Caracas to leave as the political crisis deepens in Venezuela ahead of a controversial vote scheduled for Sunday. The US State Department also authorized the voluntary departure of any US government employee. The immediate concern is over President Nicolas Maduro’s plan to hold an election this weekend that would write a new constitution and create a Constituent Assembly that would nullify the existing opposition-led legislature and fill it with groups supportive of the regime, thus consolidating Maduro’s presidential power. The government banned protests from Friday to Tuesday. …And Will The Trump Administration’s Sanctions Deepen Its Political and Economic Crisis?: On Wednesday, the Trump administration imposed “relatively modest” sanctions on 13 senior Venezuelan officials and others linked to Maduro’s regime. American officials stressed that these measures were just a preview of actions to come if Maduro goes through with Sunday’s vote. Additional American sanctions could be a devastating economic blow, hastening Venezuela toward dictatorship and even closer ties with China and Russia. Venezuela accounts for roughly 10 percent of American oil imports, and the US has enormous leverage as one of its most important customers and as one of the few countries able to process Venezuela’s poor-quality heavy crude. A complete embargo on Venezuelan oil could result in more violence and a ripple effect across the hemisphere that would create more complications for the Trump administration as it tries to focus on Iran and North Korea. Furthermore, a decrease in Venezuelan exports could raise global oil prices, which would mean a boon to the economies of Russia and Iran, just as Washington is levying harsh sanctions on those countries.
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